Tesla: 1Q Issues Reduce Demand Visibility, but Long-Term Demand Still Appears Healthy

- Tesla saw 1Q deliveries fall short of expectations, leading to demand concerns. The key question is whether this is a temporary blip or an ongoing structural issue

- Based on the data we know today, I view the issues as temporary in nature and see strong longer-term demand driven by high customer satisfaction and strong market share within their existing products

- Model S/X weakness is concerning, but explained by the decision to stop selling entry-level models. An upcoming refresh mitigates this risk, but Tesla must demonstrate superior value to other models

- Tesla Network buzz ahead of the Autonomy Investor Day is overly bullish in my view, but Tesla could still financially benefit from a capable semi-autonomous driving system

- The path to a higher stock is driven by showing profitable demand that can fund the next growth initiatives - the China Gigafactory and Model Y. I believe this is likely to occur over the course of 2019

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Tesla: What BP's Oil Spill Tells Us About Potential SEC Enforcement for Musk

-With Musk ending his attempt to take Tesla private, focus will shift to potential SEC enforcement, which I believe will consist of a fine but no removal of Elon Musk

-Enforcement could hinge on whether Musk had intent to mislead investors with his tweets, which is a high bar to prove

-This is further supported by BP's oil spill, which involved disclosures that misled investors and a subsequent $525 million fine over three years, but no executive removal

-Despite these considerations, we still cannot rule out that the SEC will pursue a harsher punishment given the unprecedented nature of the disclosures

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Match: Will Facebook's Dating Feature Crush Match, or Does it Present a Buying Opportunity?

- Analysts are overwhelmingly bullish on Match with the recent pullback from Facebook's upcoming dating feature. Analysts see a large market with room for multiple players to succeed, and numerous other reasons for optimism.

- Match has a number of growth drivers that should provide upside to the stock. The company remains in the early innings of monetizing its significant user base, and will also grow internationally.

- Several risks exist, including the risk that Facebook's curated approach succeeds and dents Match's growth trajectory. There is also headline risk once Facebook announces more detailed plans in the dating space.

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Activision: Gaming is Worth Watching

Gaming is becoming a bigger part of our lives. Whether it's over our phones while on the subway, on the Xbox on our TV at home, or on Twitch on our PC, more and more of our time is spent playing or watching games.  Over the last five years, Activison's stock has risen steadily higher on this gaming wave.

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Amazon: International and Margin Upside in Focus

It has been some time since I last wrote about Amazon. For a long period of time, between 2014 and 2015, Amazon stock was under heavy scrutiny as investors began to question the underlying profitability of the business. The problem was created primarily by a period of (what appeared to be) bad results, exacerbated by poor financial disclosures.

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Tesla: Model 3 Trade On Track, but Is S/X Demand Slowing?

Tesla reported 1Q deliveries of just over 25,000, of which 13,450 were for the Model S, while 11,550 were for the Model X. The deliveries announcement today will add fuel to the bull thesis, as the company's deliveries were above consensus estimates of ~24,000 units for the quarter, suggesting that the company is on track to meet the high end of their 1H deliveries guidance of 47,000 - 50,000 target. The results were positive overall for the company, and the stock is currently trading up 5% as of this writing. 

However, many investors remain skeptical of Tesla. Looking beyond the Model 3 trade, many investors are debating what is happening to underlying demand for Tesla's older models.

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Adobe: Benefiting from Shift to Cloud, but Is Risk/Reward Favorable?

Adobe has shot through the roof, gaining 279% over the last 5 years. The stock has benefited primarily from the ongoing shift of marketing/media to the internet, as well as Adobe's product shift towards the cloud. As people's eyeballs move towards our screens, advertising and content creation is increasingly following it. In turn, people are increasingly demanding more tools to create, distribute, and analyze/optimize content. Adobe's suite of products are perfectly positioned to address these issues.

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The Looming Technology That Could Crash the Auto Part Party

The auto part retailers have long been the darlings of the retail industry with consistent earnings growth, the highest margins in the sector, and protection from online players. And as a result, the stocks have been rewarded with a high valuation and market outperformance. However, there's a looming technology that could disrupt the industry that I don't think is being accounted for by investors. 

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Facebook: What Investors are Focused on Ahead of FB's 3Q Results

Have you ever seen a company beat consensus EPS estimates, but the stock still goes down? This happens because institutional investors focus on many other line items besides earnings. Here are the key issues (beyond the obvious EPS estimate of $0.52) that investors will be focused on.

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Facebook: Detailing FB's Longer-Term Revenue Drivers and Bear Case

Facebook is a widely loved stock among both the buy-side and sell-side analysts. One of the reasons for the optimism is Facebook's near-term revenue growth drivers in video and Instagram, as I detailed yesterday. Beyond these factors, the company also has a number longer-term sources that hold a significant amount of potential. Specifically, Facebook's messaging apps, Facebook Messenger and WhatsApp, have an even greater number of users than Instagram and could unlock further growth beyond 2016. Additionally, Facebook's virtual reality company, Oculus, holds potential beyond PC and mobile as the next computing  platform.

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Facebook: Detailing FB's Near-Term Revenue Drivers

The FB bull thesis is made up of a number of revenue drivers that could drive advertising revenue and EPS upside. In the near-term, investors see a number of positives that could benefit sales, including easing comparisons and FX headwinds. Beyond these superficial tailwinds, investors are most  bullish on the opportunities from video and Instagram, which are not fully baked into consensus estimates for next year.

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Apple: 4Q15 Results Largely As Expected; 1Q16 Guidance Positive

Apple reported fiscal 4Q15 results after market close yesterday, and investors reacted positively (Apple is currently up +1% in the premarket). While the quarter's results were largely in line with investor expectations, investors were generally positive on Apple's 1Q16 guidance for positive iPhone revenue and unit growth. However, many investors remain concerned that growth could decline the rest of the year in fiscal 2016. A key question going forward will be whether Apple will be able to grow iPhone units and revenue in 2016 on top of the highly successful prior year.

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Amazon: Amazon Surpasses Walmart; 2Q Exceeds Expectations

Back in mid-June, I wrote about Amazon's 38% stock increase on the heels of a strong 4Q and 1Q. Since then, AMZN reported blowout 2Q results, and the stock has increased another 34%, for a total of a 72% increase since January 29.  Amazon's market cap now stands at $250 billion, surpassing Walmart's $230 billion market cap. What has led Amazon to surpass the largest retailer in the world?

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