- Analysts are overwhelmingly bullish on Match with the recent pullback from Facebook's upcoming dating feature. Analysts see a large market with room for multiple players to succeed, and numerous other reasons for optimism.
- Match has a number of growth drivers that should provide upside to the stock. The company remains in the early innings of monetizing its significant user base, and will also grow internationally.
- Several risks exist, including the risk that Facebook's curated approach succeeds and dents Match's growth trajectory. There is also headline risk once Facebook announces more detailed plans in the dating space.
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1) What impact will the ad load drop have on ad revenue in 2H17?
2) Where will expense growth end up for the year?
3) Messaging is a huge opportunity
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Have you ever seen a company beat consensus EPS estimates, but the stock still goes down? This happens because institutional investors focus on many other line items besides earnings. Here are the key issues (beyond the obvious EPS estimate of $0.52) that investors will be focused on.
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Facebook is a widely loved stock among both the buy-side and sell-side analysts. One of the reasons for the optimism is Facebook's near-term revenue growth drivers in video and Instagram, as I detailed yesterday. Beyond these factors, the company also has a number longer-term sources that hold a significant amount of potential. Specifically, Facebook's messaging apps, Facebook Messenger and WhatsApp, have an even greater number of users than Instagram and could unlock further growth beyond 2016. Additionally, Facebook's virtual reality company, Oculus, holds potential beyond PC and mobile as the next computing platform.
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The FB bull thesis is made up of a number of revenue drivers that could drive advertising revenue and EPS upside. In the near-term, investors see a number of positives that could benefit sales, including easing comparisons and FX headwinds. Beyond these superficial tailwinds, investors are most bullish on the opportunities from video and Instagram, which are not fully baked into consensus estimates for next year.
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