AbbVie: How Big is the Biosimilar Threat to Humira?

- AbbVie's Humira represents a sizeable portion of revenue, and will see biosimilar competition soon in the EU and in the US

- In the EU, a more biosimilar-friendly environment (net of regional differences) and the launch of at least three biosimilars could lead to more significant declines than expected.

- In the US, competition is not expected until 2023, and biosimilars have not gained much traction to date. However, the environment is changing.

- The pipeline looks promising with numerous label expansions planned that could offset Humira sales declines. Some investors are skeptical over whether it will be enough.

- Ultimately, the lack of visibility on Humira's growth trajectory prevents most of the street from turning more positive. 4Q18 Humira performance will be closely watched.

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