Amarin: Low Compliance and Competition Key to Bear Thesis, but Bulls Don't See the Threat

  • In this note, I detail some common elements of the bear thesis, as well as the counterarguments to this thesis.

  • Low compliance serves as a risk to consensus estimates, which suggest high growth rates after label expansion approval

  • Additionally, several competitors are expected to see trial readouts over the coming months

  • Finally, ongoing patent litigation could pose a risk to longer-term estimates

  • Bulls posit that compliance is not a significant issue, that competitors lack CV outcome results or a clean safety profile, and that patent litigation is in Amarin’s favor.

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