Johnson and Johnson: Pharma Remains the Key Debate but Other Segments Showing Signs of a Recovery

- The story around Johnson and Johnson consists of three components: an eroding piece (Zytiga and Remicade), a growing piece (numerous new drug launches and line extensions), and a turnaround effort in its Consumer and Medical Devices segment

- Within the eroding piece, Remicade, Zytiga, Concerta, and Velcade face ongoing competition and loss of exclusivity that could impact sales. Invokana has also struggled.

- However, management is optimistic that an extensive pipeline of new drug launches and line extensions can offset the declines. Stelara, Tremfya, Erleada, and Esketamine are most often discussed by investors.

- Outside of the Pharmaceutical segment, management is focused on turning around the Consumer and Medical Devices segments. Results from 3Q showed that these efforts were beginning to see returns.

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Johnson and Johnson: Will Pipeline Drugs Offset Sales Erosion to Upcoming Generics?

JNJ is a massive company with many products stretching across its three segments: Pharmaceutical, Consumer, and Medical Devices. 

- The Pharmaceutical segment is the key to the bull and bear thesis, as it represents a majority of revenue and operating income. A number of drugs will face generic competition in 2019, and investors are watching to see if the pipeline is robust enough to fend off revenue erosion

- Consumer and Medical Devices have lagged Pharmaceuticals growth, but management outlined a robust plan to turn the businesses around over the next several years at a recent Investor Day on May 16. These segments may become a bigger part of the story should Pharmaceutical segment growth slow, and is essential for JNJ's multiple to recover

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Johnson and Johnson: Pharma Segment Key to JNJ Performance in 2017

Johnson and Johnson stumbled a bit in the second half of 2016. The stock declined slightly 11% from July to late January as investors began to focus in on the Pharmaceutical segment and its growth trajectory. The segment, which represents 47% of sales, has driven much of JNJ's top-line growth over the last four years with over 10% organic growth each year. However, growth in this segment began to slow noticeably to 2% in 4Q16. Additionally, management gave segment guidance that implied growth of just 2-3% in 2017. In turn, street estimates were lowered. 

What has been driving the growth moderation and the investor concerns?

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